eBay as a market research tool

I was reading a blog entry the other day that asked what had happened to the Microsoft Zune, the much touted rival to the iPod. Given the money Microsoft spent promoting the product it is a good question to ask. One way I sought an answer was to look on eBay and see what price these were now selling for. In essence I wanted to see if there was a big market for them and also what had happened to prices. It then occurred to me that eBay in effect offers a great tool for people wanting to track the life cycle of a consumer product. You can pretty easily take off the current pricing of products (highest and lowest) and also the volume available on a daily basis and thus plot the rise and fall of these products over time. This is the sort of data that usually required expensive research. Thanks to eBay it is essentially free if you can get someone to pull the data, or if you create a tool that automatically takes off the data. In the case of the Zune it did sell at a small premium to start with and can now be bought for around $180, which is about a 28% discount. Taking my theory another step I'm pretty sure you could use this kind of data to predict when you need to release a new version of a product in order to prevent the sales price sliding too far. Of course you could also use it to predict when your competitor should be releasing a new product.

Reuters creates a target for PROs

A couple of days ago Reuters made an announcement that appears to have been ignored by the PR industry. Essentially they announced the introduction of technology that would scan news for sentiment on particular companies and issues. If, as a result of these news scans, sentiment went above or below user defined limits, then an automatic trade would be executed. It's another form of algorithmic trading and will likely become a key target for PR consultants wanting to drive the price of a stock up or down. Presumably, if you know how to play the sentiment game, you will in effect be able to force your client's share price up and its competitor's down. A pretty scary thought but just as there are companies that have built a business optimizing sites for search engines, I suspect there will be people optimizing content for this Reuters technology.

http://about.reuters.com/productinfo/updates/update.aspx?user=1&id=1176&

Will a weak $ affect our industry?

My guess is that most people in the PR industry don't pay much attention to exchange rates, unless they do financial PR. This isn't intended to be a criticism. In most instances exchange rates don't make much difference to the day to day work carried out in our industry. However, the steady decline of the US dollar in the last few years ought sooner or later to have some impact. From where I sit I can see a few ways a weak dollar could impact agencies:

1. For agencies representing European firms a weak dollar may create an argument for higher spending. This argument is based on the fact that relative to the Euro or Sterling, marketing spends in the US are actually declining in real terms - of course so are sales which is of course the reason most budgets won't change. But for companies wanting to shift perceptions in a big way, now may be a good time for that promotional push in the US.

2. For agencies representing US businesses overseas it could be argued that budgets should also rise. I'll admit here and now that the logic trail is rather one sided but hear me out. Many US businesses are benefiting greatly from a weak dollar by becoming more competitive in overseas markets. Put another way they are deriving a greater percentage of their profits from overseas markets thanks in part to this improved competitiveness and in part to the translation effect of converting say sterling back in to dollars. This may in turn make it more attractive for them to up their marketing spends in these markets to improve sales even further.

3. US agencies looking to sell may find themselves more attractive to European buyers. The US agency market has been a difficult one to crack for many European agency groups. A weak dollar makes US agencies a relatively cheap deal right now - if of course you assume the US economy is going to continue to perform relatively well. Now there a number of UK agency Groups that could be potential buyers, these include: Chime, Huntsworth, Creston and of course Next Fifteen. The larger Groups such as WPP and Publicis are of course also an option. My guess is that the likes of Ad Media Partners are brushing up on their international dialing codes.

So while a weak dollar can be frustrating for someone like me that runs a UK-based PR Group, the news isn't all bad.

YouTube's Next Step?

If like me you occasionally poke around on YouTube for research reasons, you may have noticed an increasing number of videos of things that are for sale. This includes items like cars and houses. This of course makes complete sense as it becomes clear that if you want to buy a big ticket item it might be nice to have more than a few pictures, which is typical on eBay. It would seem logical therefore that Google, as the new owner of YouTube, may just look at adding an eCommerce engine to YouTube to enable people to actually buy the items shown on the videos. YouTube purists may say this will make it even harder to find good content but I suspect the guys in Mountain View could find a solution if the site really does fill up with sale items. Of course, the other alternative is that eBay adds YouTube like features to its site. Watch this space.

Technology PR or Energy PR?

In the last six months we have seen the environment come back on the agenda with a bang. This has caused almost every major company to look at its 'green quotient.' Now for some businesses this simply means making themselves carbon neutral but for others it means changing the products they sell and some cases rethinking the competition. Take companies such as Cisco and Polycom who both offer pretty sophisticated video conferencing solutions. Whereas these systems were at best hokey (and horribly expensive) a few years ago, they are fast becoming usable and affordable, thus causing the airlines to take note. Now if you had said a few years ago that United Airlines biggest competitor would be a technology company people would have patted you on the back and changed the subject. Of course just about every major tech company is now looking at its product set and asking: "can we make it use less energy?" or "will this solution save the customer some energy?" This is changing the very messaging of the major tech firms and many smaller ones, putting energy up near the top of the list. The other big shift has been the shifting interests of the major VCs towards clean tech investments. John Doerr and Vinod Kholsa in particular are making big steps in this direction with huge investments in areas like bio fuels. These people are of course expecting their marketing partners to make the same shift, meaning that PR businesses that were announcing servers and embedded chip controllers a few years ago are now discussing the merits producing ethanol from corn, versus sugar cane or even trees.

Now this could all just be a passing phase and as one senior PR executive said to me yesterday, the media is already getting a little tired of writing about how company x is going green. But what does appear to be clear is that the tech market and energy market are converging. So any self respecting PR executive that is currently making a living from tech PR had better start learning about the dynamics of the energy market, because in one way or another its going to affect them quite significantly in the years ahead.

Didn't we get a new Fed Reserve Chairman?

The Federal Reserve Chairman is Ben Bernanke. Yet it seems the former FRC, Alan Greenspan, seems to have either forgotten he retired, or was never told. In recent weeks he's spoken to the media a great deal with views on the likelihood of the US economy slipping into recession (he's gives it about a 30% chance in the next year) and his thoughts on the collapse in the subprime lending market. His comments are getting the attention of the media and the financial markets. Now of course it could be that he misses being in the spotlight and simply wants to see his picture in the papers, or it could be that the government finds it quite useful to have a credited but unofficial source giving people some guidance. If it's the latter, then he may prove quite an effective spokesperson for the current administration, assuming of course he keeps people feeling that things are going OK. Either way, I'm guessing that the government's PR machine is keeping a close on eye on his pronouncements and is likely ensuring he gets their side of the story.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070315/ap_on_bi_ge/greenspan_2

The next big thing

Spent the last few days at TED, a pretty amazing event that feels a bit like a meal. Presentations from movie producers, software engineers, poets, physicists, Paul Simon and Bill Clinton. The reference to the meal being that some of this has been like 'having to eat your greens,' while other parts have been like being given a great dessert. If there's one theme that has pervaded the event so far it is again that we all need to work on saving the planet. This was very much the message of John Doerr who ended his speech in tears and has been a passing reference by almost all the other speakers. From a communications perspective it's hard not to walk away from this feeling that for brands to succeed they must put greater emphasis on this aspect of their social responsibility if they are to succeed. Of course you may argue that consumers are the ones that will be the judge of that. I'd argue, having been bathed in the 'we have to save the planet' message for a few days by leaders from all walks of life, that this is not a passing fad. equally it's a message that is getting the attention of some pretty important minds. Therefore I'd argue that what we have here is something really important. It's what VCs have been searching for since the dot com bubble burst. It is the next big thing. Kind of funny when you think about it. The next big thing isn't some amazing new algorithm or financial model, it's the thing you've been standing on for most of your life - the planet.

A Long Tale on the Value of Blogging

Excuse the pun but I recently came across a paper co-written by some IBM and Google researchers on the connection between blogging and the sales of products. The paper was written back in 2005 so is not new but it is one of only a few papers I've ever seen that have tried to draw a clear link between the impact of blogs on the sales of companies. The good news for bloggers is that there appears to be a connection. At least there was when it was written. While rather academic it is worth a read.

http://labs.rightnow.com/colloquium/papers/prediction_from_chatter.pdf

Google Toy Useful for PR

If you want to know whether Tony Blair has been in the news as much as George Bush, or Apple Computer versus WalMart then Google Trends can give you a pretty quick answer. For many PR execs wanting to know if their client is making as much noise as its rivals this tool will be very helpful - assuming their client is big enough to make a decent amount of noise. I recently saw this tool used to express a client's 'noise level' versus other big companies and while it doesn't allow you to dig very deep it is nevertheless useful. Right now most searches simply track the volume of searches for each item but for some the results also show News Reference Volume. For example, search Google versus YouTube and you will see what I mean. I can only assume that in time Google will make this technology more powerful and useful, much as they have with Google Maps. Watch out media measurement businesses, Google has come to town...

Oh and if you search on PR versus advertising, it looks like PR is slowly catching the old dog.
http://www.google.com/trends?q=advertising%2C+pr&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all

Council of PR survey says industry is booming again... especially for the small agencies

This survey interested me, mostly because the Council is usually a great mouthpiece for the bigger agencies in our industry. Yet the survey they released this week says that the real growth in the US agency business is set to come in the agencies below $4m in billings. These firms, the surveys says, are expecting to grow at nearly 20% this year, whereas average growth (presumably including the small high growth firms) is likely to be around 14%. If we take out the small firms that suggests the bigger firms are probably forecasting growth of around 10% which is still not bad. Now I know the law of big numbers would suggest that larger agencies may find it harder to grow at high rates but I wonder if this survey is telling us another story. In my mind there are several possibilities. First it could be that small agencies are soaking up the demand from all the small clients that big agencies don't want. This would make sense, especially if the economic data suggested it was the small businesses in America that are generating the real economic growth. But that last point doesn't seem entirely plausible given the numbers that have been put out by major energy, retail and tech companies lately. The second possibility is that clients are less excited by the big agencies. This seems possible but would not seems to match our Group's experience where the largest of our firms is seeing a very full new business pipeline. My last theory is that the market is simply very tight and this actually means that only those businesses that have people to do the work can get hired. The large agencies are quite happy to grow at a decent pace and hire accordingly. Smaller agencies are often happy to take the growth when it's there and given the labor laws in the US this means they can hire freely knowing that if things go against them they can relatively easily cut back, especially as smaller firms. Whatever, the real reason is it is great to see the industry so optimistic about its future.

what a difference this time around for Microsoft

In 1995 I remember being in a cab in New York and all the driver wanted to talk about was Windows 95. That same year I remember two mothers with their babies in a Starbucks discussing the merits of Windows versus the Mac OS. 1995 was a truly remarkable time in technology and a time when Microsoft truly broke through as a household name. It is interesting that twelve years on and with a huge marketing budget the launch of Vista has not quite captured the same level of attention even though there are billions of people who may be affected by it, compared with the mere hundred million or so back in '95. I know a lot of people will say this shows how Windows is no longer the driver of the tech industry. On that front I'd argue that Windows is still very much at the heart of IT. It's just not that new. Indeed Windows is technically nearly 22 years old now. It seems hard to imagine that some University graduates were born after Windows was first launched. If you think about Windows in this way you realize that the comms challenge with Windows is quite unique in technology terms. Indeed the challenge could be likened to that of an aging rock star that is trying to attract a new generation of admirers. It's a tough trick to pull off but some manage it and I for one wouldn't bet against Microsoft even if Vista hasn't got off to the high profile bang it did when it scored its big hit in '95.

YouTube and Saddam Hussein

I'm a big fan of YouTube. It's a wonderful piece of technology and a great invention. That said I'm very disappointed to see them carrying footage of the hanging of Saddam Hussein. At what point does YouTube grow a backbone? I know people want to see the footage and I know that if YouTube doesn't show it, they'll get it elsewhere but I don't think that should matter. YouTube should be prepared to set a standard. Right now they've sent a message to the world that says: "anything goes." I for one think that's very sad.

Bill Gates, where are you?

The search is on to find the next Bill Gates according to a poll carried out by 463 and pollsters Zogby. People polled believe the next Bill Gates has been born so I guess all that remains is to find them. That search is more likely to bear fruit if people look in China or Japan than it will if they look in the US according to the poll.

The poll also asks Americans if they are ready to switch to citizen journalism for their news and while the result was a negative on that, it did reveal that 25% of 18-49 year olds would pick Citizen video for their daily news. Given how new this space is, that's pretty amazing and should worry the major TV news networks.

The full poll can be found on 463's blog at: http://www.463.com/463zogby_poll.html

In 2006

1. Google stock went to $500 much to the delight of realtors in Santa Clara County
2. Dick Cheney accidentally shoots a friend in the face and moves into the background politically
3. Google buys YouTube for $1.65Bn
4. Microsoft founder Bill Gates announced his retirement from Microsoft an the stock goes up
5. Al Gore became a movie star and may have finally shifted American sentiment on environmental issues
6. Toyota starts to sell more cars than Ford (see number 5)
7. Donald Rumsfeld steps down after months of pressure
8. The DJIA reached a record high
9. Blog and wikis became mainstream and old media continued to decline
10. WSJ announced major redesign as readership drops (see number 9)
11. HP gives a lesson in how not to handle a boardroom crisis
12. Oil prices start and end the year roughly unchanged but in between boy did they go on a roller coaster ride

What's reality?

Lord Bell, Chairman of Chime is credited with the saying: “perception is reality.” I’m wondering if we now need to shift that to: “Google is reality.” I’m being a touch facetious here but I just had a call from someone who is trying to get a reference on a person who works for one of the large technology businesses (a very large one in fact). They had tried to look them up on Google and found nothing. What was interesting was their view was that if this person didn’t show up on Google they can’t be that important. It is worth noting they were doing the research for a friend so it could be they had their name spelled wrongly. I actually found myself feeling sorry for this person and have reached out to several other people to see if they know of anyone with a name like this that works at the unnamed company. I wonder at what point will people start to add Google search links routinely to their CVs/resumes? For the record this person probably isn't that important.

Customers and color

It seems that if you want customers to like your latest piece of consumer technology then you should paint it white. At least that seems to be the case with customers shopping at Circuit City for the new Microsoft Zune. I just did a search on this new product because I was curious to see how easy it was to get one. I own several iPods so I'm not likely to buy one. What stood out when the availability results came back on the Circuit City site was the customer ratings for this product varied by color. Highest was white with a rating of 4.8 out of 5, while brown scored only 4 out of 5. Black, meanwhile, did slightly better at 4.4. To reiterate the point, these are the SAME products in different colors, yet the rating varies quite considerably. For the record, I looked on the same site at iPod ratings, regardless of color the Nano scored 4.4. Am I the only one that thinks this is odd?


CLASS%20-%20GAMES&cm_ite=135146%20PURCHASED%20KEYWORD-ZUNE&cm_keycode=338347">http://www.circuitcity.com//ssm/MP3-Players-iPods/sem/rpsm/catOid/-12952/Ntk/All/Ntt/zune/rpem/ccd/categorylist.do?WT.mc_n=338347&WT.mc_t=U&cm_ven=PAID%20SEARCH&cm_cat=ADVERTISING.COM&cm_pla=CATEGORY%20-%20GAMES%20&%20TOYS->CLASS%20-%20GAMES&cm_ite=135146%20PURCHASED%20KEYWORD-ZUNE&cm_keycode=338347

The emotional side of PR

I found myself being a PR person’s nightmare this week. To put it another way, I found myself refusing to believe (or at least not wanting to believe) a news story even though it was being covered by a number of pretty credible news outlets such as the FT, WSJ and Economist. The story was about the US dollar’s rather precipitous drop against other leading currencies. Now I didn’t want to believe it for a few reasons. First, because I run a business that reports in sterling and a fall in the dollar is just downright annoying. That said we use various currency products from banks to mitigate that problem. The second reason, is that I live in the US and I didn’t like the assertion that the US economy was actually weaker than the European economies. In truth I’m still not sure I follow the logic used by the Economist on this story but that’s not really the point of the entry.

My point here is that if someone has both a rational (runs a business that can be technically affected by a change) and an emotional (lives in the country that is said to be doing poorly) reason not to want to believe a story, it can be awfully hard to change their opinion. The emotional reason is the toughest to shift just because it’s so… emotional. In this instance I want to believe in the American economy for a host of reasons, not least that I have kids and I want them to grow up somewhere where they’ll get a good education and rewarding career. If the US economy has the kind of cancer that the Economist argues, then I should move my kids to France tomorrow where they will at least get great schooling. See my point? It’s awfully easy to get drawn away from the story and in to your own world. This reminded me that for PR people trying to fight issues on behalf of their clients that a good consideration of the emotional impact of a story may well go a long way towards finding a solution.

To put this thought in to perspective, if I were the US government right now and I wanted to counter the arguments being made, I’d focus on the great talent this country is producing in all sorts of areas AND the talent this country still attracts. It is after all people that make up economies and with great people you can have great economies. And who are these great people that I refer to? Well my kids of course!

Is Big Tech Back?

If you told people Google’s stock price had risen 25% in the past quarter nobody would be that shocked. But if you told them pretty well all the major tech stocks had had equally good quarters it may take some believing. However, when I just checked, the facts are that the following stocks rose by the following percentages:

Dell 10% (yes Dell, the one that is said to be struggling to find new growth and with that annoying battery problem)
Microsoft 15% (the one that has been criticized for delays of Vista and whose Chairman retired)
IBM 20% (I can’t actually think of a reason why ITS stock would suffer – truly)
Intel 24% (the one that is being challenged by AMD)
Oracle 25% (the one that has run out of companies to buy)
HP 25% (the one with the dysfunctional board)
Apple 32% (hasn’t everyone bought an iPod by now?)
Cisco 34% (the company that was the dot com darling but pundits said had had its day – clearly wrong)

Indeed the NASDAQ Computer index is up 18% in the last quarter. That means if you’d invested in pretty well any tech stock you should have done pretty well in the last three months. Now I know, the tech industry has been producing some good numbers (Cisco certainly has) but in truth they’ve been producing good growth for a while. I wonder what made the markets wake up?

Blogs versus news

You may think I’m getting obsessed with Google News these days. I assure you I’m not but I did think it was quite revealing that when I searched on ‘Edelman Walmart blog’ I got twelve news responses. When I used the site to search for blogs with the same criteria I got 1,458 responses. That means for every news item there were over 120 blog mentions. Going back to my HP item the ratio was more like 1.5 blog mentions to each news item. I guess this shows how the blogging world works.

Has HP taken control?

It seems HP may finally have a handle on its pretexting crisis. A quick search on Google News shows there have only been twenty six news items in the last week. Given the pace that news was pouring out a few weeks ago (nine an hour) this is quite a change. It is worth noting that there hasn’t been another big tech story of similar importance, so one can only assume that either HP has managed to put a lid on things or the media (and public) has simply moved on.